GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Monday, extending the losing run to the fourth day amid selling in IT shares and foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 247.01 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at 82,253.46. During the day, it fell 490.09 points or 0.59 per cent to 82,010.38 but recovered some of the losses towards the close.
Retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 4.75 per cent in May as prices of some kitchen items declined marginally, according to government data released on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 4.83 per cent in April 2024 and 4.31 per cent in May 2023 (previous low).
Retail inflation rose at the fastest pace in four months in December 2023 at 5.69 per cent, on account of an increase in prices of vegetables, pulses, and spices, according to government data released on Friday. The annual inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 5.55 per cent in November and 5.72 per cent in the year-ago month. As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the rate of price rise in the food basket, which constitutes nearly half of the CPI, increased to 9.53 per cent in December 2023, as against 8.7 per cent in the preceding month, and 4.19 per cent in December 2022.
The Indian economy continues to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24 and expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector is likely to fuel the next leg of growth, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Tuesday. "The likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced," said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the bulletin.
The wholesale price inflation was negative for 10 weeks in a row, but retail prices of items consumed by people in villages rose at the rate of nearly 13 per cent in the month of July.
Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday that restoring inflation-growth balance is the most important task ahead of the central bank. Addressing a press conference on his last day as the central bank chief, Das said his successor will have to navigate the changing world order, effectively deal with cyber threats, and focus on harnessing new technologies.
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Wholesale inflation rate declined marginally to 0.2 per cent in February compared to 0.27 per cent in the preceding month despite a slight uptick in the food basket. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in February 2023 was 3.85 per cent.
Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index, hit a 15-month high of 4.88 per cent in November
While demand for sub Rs 50-lakh affordable housing prevails, market players cite increased land rates, escalated construction costs and low margins as key prohibiting factors.
The Indian services growth broadly steadied in May and was underpinned by healthy demand conditions, new client wins and greater staffing capacity, a monthly report said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 58.8 in May, marginally up from April's 58.7 and signalled another sharp rate of expansion.
In a data-packed week, the domestic macroeconomic figures -- industrial production and inflation numbers -- along with global trends would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said. According to experts, markets may face volatile trends due to high valuations. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record peaks on Thursday. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading in equities.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 5.98 lakh crore on Thursday, tracking weak trends in equities where the BSE Sensex tumbled 1 per cent. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined 1 per cent in tandem with weak global market trends amid growing tensions in the Middle East.
The retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 4.87 per cent in October, mainly due to cooling prices of food items, government data showed on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation fell to a three-month low of 5.02 per cent in September. The previous low inflation was recorded at 4.87 per cent in June.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
This is the highest level of wholesale price index-based (WPI) inflation since February, when it was 2.26 per cent.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose in December at 0.73 per cent mainly due to a sharp rise in food prices. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent.
This adjustment is aimed at helping workers cope with the rising cost of living, a labour ministry statement said.
Chief economic adviser to the finance ministry Arvind Virmani on Wednesday said the retail price-based inflation, which is ruling above the wholesale price index, will come down with a lag but would not fall as much as the rate of rise in wholesale prices is falling.
How is it that tomatoes recorded a price fall in official statistics when it remained unaffordable for the common person in June?
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.02 in September, mainly due to easing food prices, according to the government data released on Thursday. The inflation has come back to the Reserve Bank's comfort level of below 6 per cent after a gap of two months. The inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 6.83 per cent in August and 7.41 per cent in September 2022.
Retail inflation eased to 7.04 per cent in May, mainly on account of softening food and fuel prices as the government as well as the RBI stepped in to control spiralling price rise by way of duty cuts and repo rate hike. However, the inflation print stayed above the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the fifth month in a row. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 7.79 per cent in April.
Despite recent underperformance, MNC funds have delivered over longer time frames.
Share prices of Nestle India, Asian Paints, Bandhan Bank, Tata Technologies, AU Small Finance Bank and Avenue Supermarts, all a part of the BSE 500 index, have hit their respective 52-week lows on the BSE in Thursday's intra-day trade after a sharp correction in the equity markets.
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
India's headline retail inflation is expected to moderate further in the months to come, as low wholesale inflation will transmit to consumer prices, the Ministry of Finance said in its latest monthly economic review (MER) on Monday. "Inflationary pressures eased in February, with slight moderation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation softening to a 25-month low. "With WPI inflation easing, its transmission to CPI inflation is soon expected," the MER for February said.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
Banks have outperformed the broader market in the past six months and most of the leading lenders have given positive returns to investors compared to a negative return delivered by benchmark indices.
The central bank is widely expected to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 7.75 per cent to fight inflation even as it continues to unwind its rupee defense steps, a Reuters poll showed.
The rate of price rise for food articles stood at 11.51 per cent during January as against 2.41 per cent a month earlier, while for non-food articles it rose nearly three-fold to 7.8 per cent from 2.32 per cent in December, the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Friday showed.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
In a first, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will conduct daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions on all working days in Mumbai, until further notice. The daily auctions, aimed at easing the current liquidity tightness in the banking system, will begin on Friday, with a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
The Model Code of Conduct for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections has come in the way of release of routine economic data like the consumer price indices.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh straight month in October at (-) 0.52 per cent, on easing prices of food items. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative zone since April and was at (-) 0.26 per cent in September, 2023. In October last year, WPI was at 8.67 per cent.
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
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