Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
The decision to hike US H-1B visa application fee to $100,000, trade talks and the GST rate cut will be the key drivers for stock market movement this week, analysts said.
India's manufacturing sector activity strengthened in October, buoyed by Goods and Services Tax relief, productivity gains and tech investment, even as international sales rose at a weaker pace, a monthly survey said on Monday.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
On a point-by-point basis, the CPI index reported a marginal rise of 0.65 per cent during October to 619 points compared to 615 points in September.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
The short-term inflation outlook for India is benign, and the expectation of a normal monsoon and moderating global prices of key imported items give credence to the projections made by the RBI and IMF, the Economic Survey said on Monday. However, to ensure long-term policy stability, the Survey 2023-24 suggested making focused efforts to increase the production of major oilseeds, expanding the area under pulses, and assess the progress in developing modern storage facilities for specific crops.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday lowered the inflation projection for the current fiscal to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent earlier, taking into account good agricultural output and falling crude prices.
India's year-on-year inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index rose to 3.43 per cent in January from 3.2 in December, a government statement said on Wednesday.
Retail inflation in August inched up to 3.65 per cent, though vegetables and pulses witnessed price rise in double digits, according to official data released on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), however, remained below the Reserve Bank's median target of 4 per cent for the second month in a row. It was at a five-year low of 3.6 per cent in July.
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 4.73 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power. The wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation rate was 4.95 per cent in December 2022 and 13.68 per cent in January 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 2.38 per cent in January, from (-) 1.25 per cent in December, 2022.
While the economy will wait for a rate cut in December, the banking industry should be happy with the wave of liberalisation -- a big push for growth in bank credit, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The repo rate cut by 25 basis points by the monetary policy committee (MPC) of RBI announced Friday will give a long-awaited relief on interest rates and also be supportive of economic growth, according to experts. Repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks.
Updated new base years for national accounts and other macro-indicators are expected to come into effect from January-February 2026, coinciding with the first and second advance estimates of national income for FY26, senior official sources aware of the development told Business Standard. "The statistics ministry set up the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) earlier this week. "It will advise on the base year for GDP (gross domestic product) and its alignment with other macro-indicators.
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
Wholesale inflation in the country rose marginally to 0.53 per cent in March compared to 0.20 per cent in the preceding month due to increase in prices of vegetables, potato, onion and crude oil. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in March 2023 was 1.41 per cent.
Among the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, UltraTech Cement, HCL Technologies, and Power Grid, were the biggest gainers. Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the laggards.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday said it has advanced the release of macroeconomic data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates by about 90 mins to 4 pm. As per the current practice, the press releases of GDP are scheduled at 5.30 pm on the specified release dates, a MoSPI statement said.
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
The Indian stock market in the October-November period sees high trading activity due to increased consumer spending, festive demand, upbeat sentiment, renewed investor confidence, and the auspicious Muhurat trading session. This impacts many stocks and sectors in the festive season.
Retail inflation declined to over six-year low of 2.1 per cent in June, nearing the RBI's comfort zone, on account of subdued prices of food items, including vegetables, driven by widespread monsoon.
The wholesale price inflation was negative for 10 weeks in a row, but retail prices of items consumed by people in villages rose at the rate of nearly 13 per cent in the month of July.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to a 21-month low of 5.85 per cent in November on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. After remaining in double digits for 19 months, the wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation declined to 8.39 per cent in October. The inflation was 14.87 per cent in November 2021. "Decline in the rate of inflation in November 2022, is primarily contributed by fall in prices of food articles, basic metals, textiles, chemicals & chemical products and paper & paper products as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said on Wednesday.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
Since items in the 12% category account for only about 5% of total GST, the additional boost to consumption may not be significant, points out M Govinda Rao.
For the time being, the RBI is done with the cuts. A cut in October, which many are still predicting, is not certain. Of course, if growth nosedives, the script will be different, expects Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The pace of gold's ascent is striking, with prices rising from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz in just 36 days -- far quicker than the historical average of 1,036 days taken to achieve similar $500/oz gains.'
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation eased in January to 0.27 per cent, mainly due to moderation in prices of food items. WPI inflation was at 0.73 per cent in December 2023. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.39 per cent.
Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index, hit a 15-month high of 4.88 per cent in November
Gold's glittering rally is expected to continue, with prices likely to climb towards $4,500 per ounce in overseas markets, supported by sustained global central bank purchases, persistent geopolitical tensions, and strong Asian demand, according to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Silver, which has outperformed gold in terms of returns so far this year, is projected to climb to around $75 per ounce, aided by robust industrial consumption and a widening supply deficit, the report said.
Retail inflation rose at the fastest pace in four months in December 2023 at 5.69 per cent, on account of an increase in prices of vegetables, pulses, and spices, according to government data released on Friday. The annual inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 5.55 per cent in November and 5.72 per cent in the year-ago month. As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the rate of price rise in the food basket, which constitutes nearly half of the CPI, increased to 9.53 per cent in December 2023, as against 8.7 per cent in the preceding month, and 4.19 per cent in December 2022.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
This is the highest level of wholesale price index-based (WPI) inflation since February, when it was 2.26 per cent.
The Indian economy continues to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24 and expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector is likely to fuel the next leg of growth, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Tuesday. "The likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced," said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the bulletin.
Chief economic adviser to the finance ministry Arvind Virmani on Wednesday said the retail price-based inflation, which is ruling above the wholesale price index, will come down with a lag but would not fall as much as the rate of rise in wholesale prices is falling.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
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